中国新能源汽车产业政策效应评估--基于消费者特征的调节效应

Effect of Policies on China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry--Based on the Moderating Effect of Consumer Characteristics

新能源汽车产业是我国培育壮大绿色经济的重要引擎,也是中国经济高质量发展的新动能.基于中国2010—2017年20个省份的面板数据,通过多元回归模型考察购置补贴、公共采购、限行限购等三类产业政策对新能源汽车私人销量的影响,并从消费者经济社会特征与社会分布特征两个角度解释不同地区产业政策效果存在差异的成因.研究结果表明,公共采购、购置补贴、限行限购等三类产业政策均促进了新能源汽车私人销量的提高.消费者的经济社会特征与社会分布特征可以解释产业政策效果存在地区差异的成因,即收入水平会对购置补贴政策产生反向的调节效应,受教育水平与人口密度分别会对公共采购政策与限行限购政策的效果产生正向的调节效应.为了推动新能源汽车发展由补贴驱动向市场驱动转变,实现高质量发展,政府应考虑在消费者特征差异的基础上不断健全和优化产业政策体系,包括:逐步取消货币补贴政策,合理制定退坡比率;继续加大政府和公共机构对新能源汽车的采购力度;积极探索与健全路权优先政策体系.

The new energy vehicle industry is an important engine for the cultivation and growth of green economy in China,and a new driving force for the high-quality development of China’s economy.Based on the panel data of 20 provinces in China from 2010 to 2017,this paper uses multiple regression model to investigate the impact of purchase subsidies,public procurement,and restrictions on traffic and purchase on private pruchase of new energy vehicles,and explain the reasons for the differences in the effects of industrial policies in different regions from the perspectives of consumers’economic and social characteristics and social distribution characteristics.The results show that all of the three policies promote the private pruchase of new energy vehicle,the economic and social characteristics and social distribution of consumers can explain the regional differences in the effect of industrial policy,that is,the income level will have a reverse regulatory effect on the purchase subsidy policy,and education level and population density will have a positive moderating effect on the effect of public procurement policy and traffic and purchase restriction policy respectively.To promote the development of new energy vehicles from subsidy driven to market driven and achieve high-quality development,the government should consider continuously improving and optimizing the industrial policy system on the basis of the differences in consumer characteristics,such as abolishing the monetary subsidy policy step by step,and formulating a reasonable rate of decline;going on to increase the procurement of new energy vehicles by the government and public institutions;actively exploring and improving the policy system of traffic priority right.