农业机械化对农业碳排放强度影响的空间溢出效应--基于282个城市面板数据的实证

Spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity:an empirical analysis of panel data from 282 cities

全球温室效应导致的极端天气给农业生产带来巨大损失,如何有效降低农业碳排放强度成为政府和学者关注的热点问题。高污染和高能耗的农业耕作方式增加了地区农业生态系统脆弱性,农业可持续发展面临绿色资源利用率低、农田污染严重的双重困境,环境承载力和生态系统承压力已达极限,严重阻碍了地区低碳农业高质量发展。为此,基于282个城市的面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型研究农业机械化对农业碳排放强度的影响,研究发现:1999—2019年农业碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势,截至2019年农业领域已提前完成了2020年碳减排目标,然而从局部来看仍有14.89%的城市农业产业未完成碳减排目标,且粮食主产区农业碳减排任务完成情况优于非粮食主产区。农业机械化显著降低了本地农业碳排放强度,对农业碳排放强度的影响存在显著的负向空间溢出效应,具有明显的空间减碳效应。相对于非粮食主产区,粮食主产区农业机械化的空间减碳效应更大。进一步研究发现,农业机械化有助于克服土地产权不稳定和土地细碎化等条件限制,通过农机跨区域作业以实现农业规模化生产,进而降低邻近地区农业碳排放强度,但农村劳动力转移和农业种植结构调整引发的农村土地集中化利用挤压了农机跨区域服务市场发展,反而弱化了农业机械化的空间减碳效应。在文章最后提出建议,政府应出台农机跨区域作业补贴政策以解决跨区域农机服务市场失灵问题,激发市场开发更加节能环保的农机产品,严控非粮食主产区耕地用途变更,为进一步农业机械化创造条件,助推低碳农业高质量发展。

Extreme weather caused by the global greenhouse effect brings huge losses to agricultural production.High pollution and high energy consumption of farming tend to raise the vulnerability of regional agricultural ecosystems,where low green resource utiliza⁃tion rate and serious farmland pollution exist and farmland environmental bearing capacity and ecosystem pressure have reached their limit.These factors have seriously hindered the quality development of regional low carbon agriculture.How to effectively reduce agri⁃cultural carbon intensity has become a hot issue in carbon economics research.Based on the panel data from 282 Chinese cities from 1999 to 2019,this study analyzed the spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The results showed that the overall trend of regional agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a significant downward trend of change,which was lower than the overall carbon emissions level from 1999 to 2019 in China.The 2020 agricultural carbon emission re⁃duction target was completed ahead of schedule in 2019.However,from a local point of view,14.89%of cities still did not meet the car⁃bon emission reduction targets,and the agricultural carbon emission reduction task in major grain producing areas was better completed than that in major non-grain producing areas.Agricultural mechanization could significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of lo⁃cal agriculture,which had a significant negative space spillover effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity.And the spatial carbon reduction effect of agricultural mechanization was stronger in major grain producing areas.Further research found that agricultural mechanization helped to overcome land property instability and fine land conditions through agricultural machinery across regional op⁃erations,which realized agricultural production scale and reduced nearby agricultural carbon intensity.However,the rural labor trans⁃fer and agricultural planting structure adjustment of rural land centralization squeezed the development scale of agricultural machinery cross-regional service markets,which weakened the space carbon reduction effect of agricultural mechanization.This study suggests that the government should issue cross-regional operation subsidy policies for agricultural machinery to solve the problem concerning the failure of cross-regional agricultural machinery service markets,develop more energy conservation and environmental protection of agricultural machinery products,strictly control the non-grain producing farmland to prevent agricultural planting structure,and create conditions for further agricultural mechanization in order to promote the establishment of regional agricultural machinery service mar⁃kets and boost low carbon agriculture high-quality development.