基于MaxEnt模型的中国豚草潜在适生区预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas of Ambrosia Artemisiifolia L.in China Based on MaxEnt Model

利用MaxEnt模型预测现代和未来气候背景下豚草在中国的潜在分布格局。研究结果表明:年平均气温和年平均降水量对豚草生存的影响呈先上升后下降趋势,豚草不适于特别炎热且干旱地区生存,最干月降水量和土壤盐基饱和度对豚草生存呈正影响;未来气候变化背景下豚草的高适生区质心移动轨迹为高纬度东北方向,有待重点监测和控制。

The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution pattern of Artemisia artemisiifolia in China under modern and future climatic background.The results showed that:The effects of annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation on the survival of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.increased firstly and then decreased,and Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.was not suitable for the survival of especially hot and arid areas.The precipitation in the driest month and soil salt base saturation had positive effects on the survival of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.;Under the background of future climate change,moving track of gravity center in highly suitable distribution areas of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.is in the northeast direction of high latitude,which needs to be monitored and controlled.