现代中央银行治理体系下的“利率走廊”管理:兼论利率波动成本的重要性

“Interest Rate Corridor”Management under the Modern Central Bank Governance System:Concurrently Discuss on the Importance of Interest Rate Fluctuation Cost

本文将利率波动成本纳入货币政策福利损失函数,据此刻画出中央银行的货币政策规则和隐性长期均衡利率,并基于隐性利率走廊制度出现前后的两段时期,全面对比测度了通胀偏离成本、产出偏离成本和利率波动成本的变化。研究结论如下:第一,早期的名义利率调整主要关注通货膨胀,而隐性利率走廊出现后,名义利率调整则转向了兼顾通胀、产出与利率波动的全局调控;第二,利率波动成本主要源于负向利率波动,这说明中央银行对紧缩型利率政策的使用更加审慎;最后,利率走廊的出现大幅压缩了通胀端与产出端的福利损失,目前利率波动与通胀偏离和产出偏离的福利损失已极为相近,表明中央银行的预期管理取得了良好效果,为有效提振市场信心、稳定实体经济波动和保证流动性合理充裕做出了重要贡献。

This article incorporates the cost of interest rate fluctuations into the monetary policy welfare loss function.Based on this,the central bank’s monetary policy rules and implicit long-term equilibrium interest rates are drawn.Based on the two periods before and after the emergence of the implicit interest rate corridor system,a comprehensive comparison is made.The changes in the cost of inflation deviation,output deviation cost,and interest rate fluctuation cost mainly draw the following conclusions:First,the early adjustment of nominal interest rates mainly focused on inflation,while after the emergence of implicit interest rate corridors,the adjustment of nominal interest rates shifted to take inflation into consideration,the overall regulation of output and interest rate fluctuations;Second,the cost of interest rate fluctuations is mainly due to negative interest rate fluctuations,which shows that the central bank is more cautious in the use of austerity interest rate policies;Finally,the emergence of interest rate corridors has greatly compressed the inflationary side and welfare losses on the output side.The current interest rate fluctuations are very similar to the welfare losses due to inflation and output deviations,indicating that the central bank’s expectation management has achieved good results and made important contributions in effectively boosting market confidence,stabilizing real economic fluctuations and ensuring reasonable liquidity sufficient has.