退而不休、隔代照料与中国育龄女性生育行为

Postponing Retirement,Grandparents’Care and Fertility of Women of Childbearing Age in China

在“全面三孩”政策已经出台和人口老龄化、延迟退休政策呼之欲出的双重背景下,探索既能充分发挥老年人余热又不会对人口出生率造成较大负面冲击的政策框架体系具有重要意义。本文利用CHNS数据实证考察了“退而不休”对中国育龄女性生育行为的影响及作用机制。研究发现,在控制其他条件不变的情况下,祖辈“退而不休”会显著减少育龄女性的生育数量。采用工具变量处理模型的内生性之后,回归结果依然显著。异质性研究发现,拥有城市户籍、受教育程度高的女性和高收入家庭的生育行为更易受到祖辈“退而不休”的影响。进一步的影响机制分析发现,“退而不休”会挤出祖辈照料孙辈的时间,从而导致生育水平下降。本文的研究结论能为中国实施人口均衡发展战略以及统筹解决“一老一小”问题提供一定的微观层面的证据和政策启示。

This paper empirically examines the impact of postponing retirement on the fertility of women in China and its mechanism.The data were collected 1989 to 2015 using China Health and Nutrition Survey.Results revealed that,under the control of other conditions,postponing retirement of grandparents will significantly reduce the possibility of fertility.After using instrumental variables to cope with the endogenity of the model,the regression results are still significant.Furthermore,heterogeneous studies have found that the fertility of urban household registration,highly educated individuals,and high-income families are more likely to be affected by postponing retirement of grandparents.Further analysis of the mechanism found that delaying retirement would squeeze out the time of grandparents on caring grandchildren,thus leading to a decline in fertility.This paper provides micro-level evidence that can provide certain policy enlightenment for the balanced development of population in China.