我国农村金融脆弱性测度及管控对策研究

Measurement and Empirical Study of Rural Financial Vulnerability in China

金融脆弱性是评价、测量、预计金融危机的重要部分。以构建农村金融脆弱性指标体系为基础,选取2008-2019年间8个相关指标,并利用因子分析法,结合警戒线实证分析我国农村金融脆弱性变化趋势。结果表明,我国农村金融脆弱性总体呈现下降趋势,大部分年份位于警戒线之下,但2018-2019年我国农村金融脆弱性呈上升趋势。农村金融脆弱性受宏观经济因素影响较大,也与农村金融机构运营风险密切相关,应该重点关注农村居民收入与消费情况,以及农产品价格波动,健全农村金融风险防控机制,构建更加科学合理的农村金融脆弱性测量指标体系。

Financial vulnerability is the state of accumulation of all financial risks in the process of financing,and it is an important part of evaluating,measuring and predicting the financial crisis.Based on the construction of rural financial vulnerability index system,this paper selects 8 indicators from 2008 to 2019,and analyzes the changing trend of rural financial vulnerability in China by using factor analysis and empirical analysis combined with warning line.The results show that the rural financial vulnerability in China is above the warning line around 2011,and the rural financial vulnerability in China is on the rising trend after 2018.The vulnerability of rural finance is influenced by macro-economic factors.There is a close relationship between camp risk,we should focus on the income and consumption of rural residents,as well as the price fluctuation of agricultural products,deepen the rural financial reform,improve the mechanism of rural risk prevention and control,and build a more scientific and reasonable index system of rural financial vulnerability measurement.