后疫情时代全球贸易格局新变化与中国政策应对

New changes in the global trade pattern in the post-epidemic era and China’s policy response

新冠肺炎疫情引起的全球供应链中断深刻影响了国际贸易格局。疫情下国际贸易增长“一波三折”,供需缺口带动亚太地区贸易占比上升;全球化程度高的产业链备受冲击,引发欧美调整产业布局、提升供应链韧性和安全性;国际贸易数字化进程加快,贸易新业态、新模式迅速发展。展望后疫情时代,全球贸易格局将出现新变化、新趋势。国际贸易将恢复稳定增长,但全球供应链分散化、区域化、本土化进程将会加快,强化国际贸易区域化趋势;外贸数字化将加速崛起,进一步扩大贸易增量空间;欧盟碳关税短期将冲击发展中国家出口竞争力,长期将促进国际贸易低碳化、绿色化。面对后疫情时代外贸发展机遇与挑战,中国应加强国际与区域经贸合作,加快外贸数字化、低碳化转型等。

The interruption of global supply chains caused by the COVID-19 has a profound impact on the pattern of international trade.The growth of international trade has experienced“twists and turns”under the epidemic,and the gap between supply and demand has led to an increase in the proportion of trade in the Asia-Pacific region.The highly globalized industrial chain has been impacted,causing Europe and the United States to adjust the industrial layout and improve the resilience and security of the supply chain.The digitalization process of international trade has accelerated,and new business forms and models of trade have developed rapidly.Looking forward to the post-epidemic era,the global trade pattern will see new changes and new trends.International trade will resume steady growth,but the process of decentralization,regionalization and localization of the global supply chain will be accelerated to strengthen the trend of regionalization of international trade.The digitalization of foreign trade will accelerate the rise to further expand the space for trade increment.EU carbon tariffs will impact the export competitiveness of developing countries in the short term and promote low-carbon and green international trade in the long term.Facing the opportunities and challenges of foreign trade development in the post epidemic era,China should strengthen international and regional economic and trade cooperation and speed up the digitization and low-carbon transformation of foreign trade.