稳增长背景下中国省级政府债务对经济增长及波动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of China's Provincial Government Debt on Economic Growth and Fluctuation under the Background of Steady Growth

宏观经济稳定是高质量发展的核心内涵。在稳增长背景下,本研究基于2012-2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用曼-肯德尔法、核密度估计对省级政府负债率进行时空演化分析;采用面板模型和HP滤波法研究省级政府债务对经济增长及波动的影响。结果发现:(1)中国省级政府债务能够促进经济增长,回归系数(0.1297)显著;从不同区域视角,东部地区(0.1348)和中部地区(0.1857)的促进作用明显高于西部地区(0.0757)。(2)地方政府债务与经济增长呈现倒“U”型非线性关系。(3)政府债务波动会加剧经济波动(0.0081),税负水平和人力资本水平的波动显著加剧了经济波动,产业结构和对外开放程度的波动显著减缓了经济波动;东、中部地区政府债务的波动与经济波动的关系并不显著,而西部地区政府债务的波动显著加重了经济波动程度。

Macroeconomic stability is the core concept of high-quality development.In the context of steady growth, based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2020,this study used Mann-Kendall method and Kernel Density estimation to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the provincial government debt ratio, and adopted panel model and HP filtering method to study the impact of provincial government debt on economic growth and fluctuation.Research findings:(1)China’s provincial government debt promoted economic growth and the regression coefficient(0.1297)was significant.From different regional perspectives, the promoting effect of the eastern region(0.1348)and the central region(0.1857)is significantly higher than that of the western region(0.0757).(2)There is a nonlinear relationship between China’s provincial government debt and economic growth, showing an inverted“U-shaped”curve.(3)The fluctuation of provincial government debt will aggravate the economic fluctuation(0.0081),the fluctuation of tax burden level and human capital level have significantly exacerbated the economic fluctuation, and the fluctuation of industrial structure and opening to the outside world have significantly slowed down the economic fluctuation;the relationship between the fluctuation of provincial government debt and economic fluctuation in the eastern and central regions is not significant;while the fluctuation of provincial government debt in the western region significantly aggravates the degree of economic fluctuation.