全球价值链分工对通货膨胀的影响及机制分析

The Impact of Global Value Chain Division on Inflation and Its Mechanism Analysis

在经济全球化背景下,全球价值链分工是探究一国(地区)通货膨胀成因不可忽视的重要因素。基于此,本文从理论和实证两个维度,系统性地讨论了全球价值链分工对一国(地区)通货膨胀的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,全球价值链分工对一国(地区)通货膨胀具有显著正向影响,且该结论在克服内生因果和多重稳健性检验后结论依然成立。此外,在考虑时间跨度、国家发展水平等异质性条件时发现,全球价值链分工对通货膨胀的影响存在差别化影响。最后,在机制作用分析方面研究表明,贸易失衡是全球价值链分工影响通货膨胀的重要渠道。本研究结果为全球价值链分工体系下宏观政策制定提供了理论支持和重要启示。

In the context of economic globalization, the division of global value chain is an important factor that can not be ignored to explore the causes of inflation in a country(region).Based on this, this paper systematically discusses the impact of global value chain division on a country’s(region’s)inflation and its mechanism from both theoretical and empirical dimensions.It is found that the division of global value chain has a significant positive impact on the inflation of a country(region),and the conclusion is still robust after overcoming the endogenous causality and multiple robustness tests.In addition, when considering different time span and national development level, the impact of global value chain division on inflation is differentiated.Finally, in terms of mechanism analysis, trade imbalance is an important channel for global value chain division to affect inflation.