Put-call ratio predictability of the 50ETF option

This article investigates the predictive power of the put-call ratios(PCRs)implied by China’s 50ETF option on the 50ETF return and its variance.By using simple partitional regressions,the relationship between the PCR and the 50ETF return is tested.This study conducts tests on their robustness based on different horizons,market conditions,moneyness status and time to maturity.Empirical results indicate that the PCR is a strong forward-looking indicator of the variance of 50ETF returns.A robust and negative correlation is detected.A significant linear correlation between the PCR and the 50ETF return only exists during the market crash.This study shows evidence that the PCR as seen in common trading practices may be misused and indicates a potential way of using it.