防御性现实主义视域下的中俄北极安全合作

Sino-Russian Arctic Security Cooperation from the Perspective of Defensive Realism

北极地区的安全合作是中国与俄罗斯关系发展的里程碑事件。作为影响国家外交决策的经典理论,防御性现实主义能够解读中俄北极安全事务合作的结构与进程。一方面,当前的北极治理正朝着北极理事会主导下的“多极竞争”格局发展;另一方面,中俄由于经济互补、威胁感知、力量平衡等因素驱动发展成为较为紧密的安全合作伙伴关系,这在一定程度上也提高了两国在北极地区的资源共同开采、航线基础设施建设和安全合作意识提升等安全合作程度。由于存在各国认知的差异性、全球气候变化的不确定性以及美国将北极安全军事化的危险性,中俄两国的合作面临诸多挑战。对此,应明确中俄在北极地区的核心利益与诉求,正视各国的冲突与差异,加强新兴技术领域的战略合作,打造“中俄北极+X”合作新模式与共同建立北极科学和可持续发展基金是两国应对挑战的可选路径。

Security cooperation in the Arctic region is a milestone in the relations between China and Russia.As a classical theory that influences a country’s foreign policy decisions,defensive realism may be used to interpret the structure and course of China-Russia cooperation in Arctic security affairs.On the one hand,the current Arctic governance is moving towards the pattern of“multipolar competition”under the leadership of the Arctic Council;On the other hand,driven by economic complementarity,a shared perception to external threat,power balance and so on,China and Russia have developed a closer security cooperation partnership,which to a certain extent has enhanced their security cooperation in the Arctic region,such as joint exploitation of resources,construction of airline infrastructure and heightened awareness of security cooperation.China and Russia are facing many challenges due to their differences in perception,the uncertainty of global climate change,and the danger of militarization of Arctic security by the United States.Therefore,identifying the core interests and demands of China and Russia in the Arctic region,acknowledging their differences,strengthening their strategic cooperation in the emerging technology sector,creating a new model of China-Russia Arctic+X cooperation,and jointly establishing the Arctic Science and Sustainable Development Fund are some of the options for the two countries to deal with the challenges.