绿氢制取成本预测及与灰氢、蓝氢对比

Cost Prediction: Green Hydrogen VS Grey/Blue Hydrogen

全球碳中和为氢能产业发展创造了重大机遇,氢能逐步成为能源技术革命和产业转型升级的重要方向。灰氢的高碳排和绿氢的高成本是制约氢能健康可持续发展最重要的因素。2030年前灰氢是最经济的氢气生产方式;但在碳价上升和可再生能源度电成本下降的叠加影响下,2030年以后绿氢逐步成为最佳选择。2030年,当碳价高于0.5元/kg CO_(2)时,各制氢成本之间存在如下关系:灰氢>蓝氢(煤制氢+CCUS)>绿氢。

Global carbon neutrality has created great opportunities for the development of hydrogen,and hydrogen has gradually become an important direction of energy technology revolution and industrial transformation and upgrading.The high carbon emission of gray hydrogen and the high cost of green hydrogen are the most important factors restricting the sustainable development of hydrogen.Before 2030,gray hydrogen is the most economical way to produce hydrogen.However,green hydrogen will gradually become the best option after 2030,thanks to the combination of rising carbon prices and falling costs of renewable energy.In 2030,when the carbon price is higher than 0.5￥/kg CO_(2),there is a relationship between the hydrogen production costs as follows:gray hydrogen>blue hydrogen(coal to hydrogen+CCUS)>green hydrogen.