大型体育赛事对城市旅游产业的影响评估--来自北京2022年冬奥会赛前阶段的经验证据

Evaluation of Mega Sporting Events’Impact on Tourism in Host Cities--Empirical Evidence from the Pre-event Stage of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

举办大型体育赛事对城市旅游发展具有重要意义。以北京2022年冬奥会为例,科学量化评估其旅游影响效应,既可为大型体育赛事旅游影响研究提供实证依据,也可为更好地发挥大型体育赛事在旅游产业转型升级中的作用提供学理支撑。以赛前阶段为实证,应用回归合成法进行分析,通过对比实际情况和“反事实”情况差值,评估北京2022年冬奥会对北京旅游的影响。研究发现,2014年以来,冬奥会对北京旅游市场影响效应显著,国际旅游市场规模效益和质量效益双双提升,国内旅游市场质量效益明显提升,此种正向提升效应随时间推移不断增强,以上研究结果均通过了稳健性检验。基于实证结果,从学术研究和管理实践两方面给出启示,可为推进大型体育赛事旅游影响的科学评估并促进目的地管理实践的提升完善提供参考。

Hosting mega sporting events is significant to the development of urban tourism.Taking the Beijing 2022Winter Olympics as an example and conducting a scientific quantitative evaluation of its impact on tourism can not only provide an empirical basis for research on mega sporting events’impact on tourism,but also provide theoretical support for giving better play to the role of mega sporting events in transforming and upgrading the tourism industry.Taking the pre-event stage as an example,the regression synthesis method is used for analysis,and the impact of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics on tourism is evaluated by comparing the difference between the actual situation and the“counterfactual”situation.The study finds that since 2014,the Winter Olympics have had a significant impact on the Beijing tourism market,the scale and quality of the international tourism market have both improved,and the quality of the domestic tourism market has also improved significantly.The results of the study have passed the robustness test.Based on the empirical results,the implications are discussed from the perspectives of academic research and management practice,which can provide reference for promoting the scientific evaluation of mega sporting events’impact on tourism and improving destination management practice.