基于能源消费弹性系数法的能源消费预测——以陕西省为例

Energy consumption forecasting based on energy consumption elasticity coefficient method:A case study of Shaanxi Province

基于陕西省资源禀赋特征和现阶段经济社会发展实际,化石能源将在相当长时间内依然是陕西省最重要的经济支柱。根据陕西省经济发展要求和能源发展目标,以陕西省近20年经济和能源发展情况为历史参考,展望未来30年发展趋势,将其划分为4阶段进行系统分析与预测。研究基于2种情景采用弹性系数法和灰色关联分析法预测2035年及2050年陕西省能源消费和经济增长,并通过分能源增量贡献值法预测陕西省主要年份能源消费及经济发展情况。结果表明:现行能源政策下煤炭和非化石能源消费预测值与强化政策预测值差距显著,石油和天然气消费平稳发展。建议相关部门聚焦优化能源消费结构和产业结构,加大科技和资金投入力度,大力发展非化石能源和第三产业。

Based on the resource endowment characteristics of Shaanxi Province and the actual economic and social development at this stage, fossil energy will remain the most important economic pillar of Shaanxi Province for a long time. According to the economic development requirements and energy development goals of Shaanxi Province, this paper takes the economic and energy development of Shaanxi Province in the past 20 years as a historical reference, looks forward to the development trend in the next 30 years, and divides it into four stages for systematic analysis and prediction. Based on two scenarios, the elastic coefficient method and grey relational analysis method are used to predict the energy consumption and economic growth of Shaanxi Province in 2035 and 2050, and the energy consumption and economic development of Shaanxi Province in main years are predicted by the method of incremental contribution value of energy. The results show that there is a significant gap between the predicted coal and non-fossil energy consumption under the current energy policy and the enhanced policy, and the oil and natural gas consumption has developed steadily. This paper suggests that relevant departments focus on optimizing the energy consumption structure and industrial structure, increase investment in technology and capital,and vigorously develop non-fossil energy and tertiary industries.