基于PVAR模型的我国能源消费、经济增长与碳排放关系研究

Relationship Among Ener gy Consumption, Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in China Based on PVAR Model

实现我国能源消费、经济发展与碳排放量的平衡和谐发展,是推动建立持续生态文明、实现发展绿色可持续经济模式的重要关键。以我国2000—2019年3个变量的面板数据为基准,使用了面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),并利用系统广义矩估计(GMM)方法对模型系数进行预测,进而利用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析以及方差贡献率分析,得出了能源消费、经济增长与碳排放三者间的动态关联。研究结果表明:经济增长和与碳排放之间具有相互辅助发展的影响,且该影响随着时间的推移有所减弱。从长远角度来看,能源消费首先阻碍经济增长,然后刺激经济增长。能源消费与碳排放的相互影响上下波动,一定程度上与能源消费结构的变化有关。最后,依据研究结论提出以下政策建议:推广使用清洁能源、减小能源利用损失,积极推行节能减排政策以降低碳排放。

Achieving the balanced and harmonious development of my country’s energy consumption, economic development and carbon emissions is an important key to promoting the establishment of a sustainable ecological civilization and the development of a green and sustainable economic model. With selecting variables of energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions in China’s panel data from 2000 to 2019, the Panel Vector Autoregressive(PVAR) is estimated and the System Generalized Method of Moments(GMM) is used to estimate the coefficients, while the method of Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition are applied to reveal the dynamic relationship among energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions. The results show that there is a mutual promotion between economic growth and CO2 emission, and this promotion and inhibition will gradually weaken with the passage of time. There is a certain relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run. Finally, according to the results of the model analysis, the following suggestions are put forward: promote the use of clean energy, reduce the loss of energy utilization, and actively promote energy conservation and emission reduction policies and reduce CO2 emissions.