长三角经济增长与FDI的空间关联分析

Spatial correlation analysis of economic growth and FDI in the Yangtze River Delta region

外商直接投资(FDI)作为国际资本流动的主要形式,已经成为推动地区经济发展的重要力量.利用耦合协调度和动态计量经济学模型,对1986—2019年长三角FDI和GDP空间关联进行了分析.结果表明:长三角各省(市)FDI和GDP增长趋势相似,二者耦合度显著升高并最终达到高度耦合,但二者协调度及变化幅度均较低,其总体呈现稳定的动态均衡关系,江浙沪FDI相对发展度呈先上升后下降的态势,而安徽FDI相对发展度则呈稳步上升的态势;上海和安徽的FDI与GDP之间存在双向因果关系,江苏和浙江仅存在由FDI对GDP的单向因果关系;各省(市)FDI对GDP均具有正向波动式的冲击效应,其中江苏和浙江的冲击效果更明显;上海GDP对FDI的冲击始终保持正效应,安徽则呈现“先负后正”的冲击,最后呈下降趋势.该结果可为相关部门提供决策参考.

As the main form of international capital flow,foreign direct investment(FDI)had become an important driving force of regional economic development.The spatial correlation between FDI and GDP was analyzed by the modelling software of coupling coordination degree and dynamic econometrics in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1986 tO_(2)019.The results showed that:the growth trend of FDI and GDP in the Yangtze River Delta region was similar.The coupling degree of FDI and GDP increased significantly and finally achieved high coupling.But the coordination degree and change range of two factors were low.The overall dynamic equilibrium relationship was stable.The relative development degree of FDI in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai showed a trend of increased first and then declined,while the relative development degree of FDI in Anhui showed a trend of steady increase.There was a two-way causality between FDI and GDP in Shanghai and Anhui,but only a one-way causality between FDI and GDP in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.FDI had a positive fluctuation impact on GDP in all regions and the impact effect was more obvious in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.The impact of GDP on FDI in Shanghai maintained a positive effect,while in Anhui,the impact of“negative first and then positive”appeared,and the trend of decline appeared finally.The results could provide decision reference for relevant departments.