双循环战略下中国的对外贸易动能转换

The Dynamic Energy Conversion of China’s Foreign Trade under the Dual Circulation Strategy

基于经济增长动能理论,从需求侧、供给侧和结构转换3个方面构建对外贸易动能转换的理论框架和指标体系,在分析中国对外贸易动能转换现状及问题的基础上对2001—2019年中国30个省域的对外贸易动能转换指数进行测度和综合分析及评价。结果表明,中国对外贸易动能转换综合指数持续走高,全国平均水平从2001年的0.134 8提升至2019年的0.345 0,年均增速达到5.36%;从区域层面看,地区异质性明显,呈现由东向西梯级递减态势。今后,中国在对外贸易动能转换培育国际竞争新优势的路径选择中,一要持续扩大内需,培育对外贸易动能转换的国内市场基础;二要推进更高水平对外开放,培育对外贸易动能转换的国际市场环境;三要增强自主创新,培育对外贸易动能转换的关键核心动力;四要提升人力资本质量,培育对外贸易动能转换的人才基础支撑;五要完善制度供给,实现对外贸易动能转换的内部均衡和外部协同发展。

Based on the theory of drivers of economic growth, this paper establishes a theoretical framework and indicator system for foreign trade drivers’ transformation, from demand-side, supply-side and structural transformation aspects. This paper analyses the status quo and problems of the transformation of China’s foreign trade economic drivers, and calculates, comprehensively analyses and evaluates indexes of the transformation of foreign trade economic drivers of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2019. The results show that the overall index of China’s foreign trade economic drivers’ transformation continues to rise. The national average index has increased from 0.134 8 in 2001 to 0.345 0 in 2019, and reached a growth rate of 5.36%. For regional perspective, the heterogeneity is obvious, showing a decreasing trend from east to west. Finally, this paper puts forward recommendations on path selections of China’s foreign trade economic drivers’ transformation to foster new advantages in international competition. Firstly, expand domestic demand which provides the basis of domestic markets for foreign trade economic drivers’ transformation;Secondly, further open up to the outside world at a higher level which provides the basis of foreign markets for the transformation;Thirdly, raise the capacity for independent innovation which provides the core drivers for the transformation;Fourthly, train highly skilled personnel and improve the quality of human capital, which provides personnel for the transformation;Last, improve the new nationwide policy supply system, which achieves the domestic balance and coordinates the foreign development of the transformation.