中国天然气消费潜力测算及影响因素研究

Research on China's Natural Gas Consumption Potential Calculation and Influencing Factor

天然气作为世界能源的三大支柱之一,具有价格合适、储量充足、清洁环保的“3A”特征,目前,中国天然气消费潜力仍需激发。基于2008—2018年中国与主要天然气进口来源贸易国的面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型估算中国理论天然气贸易进口量,根据理论消费值与实际消费值的比值测算天然气消费潜力值,最后从经济规模、人口、供给能力、产业结构、空气污染五个维度对天然气消费潜力的影响因素进行分析研究。结果表明,当前中国天然气消费潜力仍有待发挥,天然气消费市场仍需扩大;经济规模的扩大可以发挥天然气消费潜力;城镇化水平对发挥天然气消费潜力有显著的正向作用;供给能力的提升可以有效扩大天然气消费市场,弥补供需缺口;产业结构处于转型阶段,可积极调整产业结构,促进天然气的消费,以发挥天然气消费潜力。

As one of the three pillars of world energy,natural gas has the"3A"characteristics of appropriate price,sufficient reserves,clean and environmental protection.At present,China's natural gas consumption potential still needs to be stimulated.Based on the panel data of China and major natural gas importing countries from 2008 to 2018,the stochastic frontier gravity model is used to estimate China's theoretical natural gas trade import volume,and the potential value of natural gas consumption is calculated according to the ratio of theoretical consumption value to actual consumption value.Finally,natural gas consumption is analyzed from five dimensions of economic scale,population,supply capacity,industrial structure and air pollution.The influencing factors of potential were analyzed.The results show that the current natural gas consumption potential in China still needs to be realized and the natural gas consumption market still needs to be expanded;the expansion of economic scale can bring into play the potential of natural gas consumption;the urbanization rate has a significant positive effect on the development of natural gas consumption potential;the improvement of supply capacity can effectively expand the natural gas consumption market and make up for the gap between supply and demand;the industrial structure is in the stage of transformation,and the industrial structure is actively adjusted to promote nature gas consumption in order to realize the potential of natural gas consumption.