山东省资源型城市能源转型能力评价与影响因素研究

Evaluation and influencing factors of energy transformation ability of resource-based cities in Shandong Province

山东省作为能源消费大省,“偏煤”的能源结构带来了许多环境问题,“双碳”战略大背景下,能源转型势在必行。以山东省资源型城市为研究样本,运用指标回路法构建并优化能源转型能力指标体系,运用PFHWD-TOPSIS模型对2006—2020年山东省资源型城市能源转型能力进行测度,运用灰色关联度分析影响能源转型能力的各要素水平。研究发现:山东省资源型城市能源转型能力整体梯度大致呈正态分布,且均呈波动上升态势,在地市级资源型城市中,淄博市、泰安市能源转型能力位居前列且远高于其他地市,枣庄市和莱芜市相对较为落后;在县级市资源型城市中,龙口市能源转型能力位居前列,淄川区和新泰市相对较为落后。通过对山东省资源型城市能源转型能力影响因素进行分析可知,能源供给结构,能源消费结构,人均全社会用电量,规模以上电力、热力生产和供应业大中型企业R&D全时人员数和新能源产业总产值分别对能源供给能力、能源消耗结构、能源消耗强度、技术研发强度、产业社会发展的影响程度最大。本文研究可为全国其他资源型城市能源转型提供参考借鉴。

As a major energy consumption province,coal based energy structure has brought many environmental problems in Shandong Province.Under the background of the carbon peak and carbon neutral strategy,energy transformation is imperative.Taking the resource-based cities in Shandong Province as the research sample,the index loop method is used to construct and optimize the index system of energy transformation capacity,the PFHWD-TOPSIS model is used to measure the energy transformation capacity of resource-based cities in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2020,and the grey correlation degree is used to analyze the level of various factors affecting the energy transformation capacity.It is found that the overall gradient of energy transformation capacity of resource-based cities in Shandong Province is roughly normal distribution,and both show a fluctuating upward trend.In prefecture-level resource-based cities,the energy transformation capacity of Zibo City and Taian City is in the forefront and much higher than that of other cities,while Zaozhuang City and Laiwu City are relatively backward.In county-level resource-based cities,Longkou City has the highest energy transformation capacity,while Zichuan District and Xintai City are relatively backward.Energy supply structure,energy consumption structure,per capita electricity consumption of the whole society,the number of R&D full-time personnel of large and medium-sized enterprises in power and heat production and supply industry above designated size and the total output value of new energy industry have the greatest impact on energy supply capacity,energy consumption structure,energy consumption intensity,technological research and development intensity and industrial and social development respectively.This paper can provide reference for the energy transformation of other resource-based cities in China.