黄河流域重金属水污染物排放的脱钩机理研究

Study on the decoupling mechanism of heavy metal water pollutants discharge in Yellow River Basin

利用Tapio和LMDI模型获得2011—2017年黄河流域经济增长与重金属水污染物排放脱钩状态及驱动效应,结合Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计,揭示区域及其子地区的关键驱动效应变化的时空差异特征、贡献率及动态演变规律,阐释黄河流域重金属水污染物排放的脱钩机理。结果表明,流域层面虽呈强脱钩状态(除2014—2015年),但上游地区脱钩情况仍十分不稳定;排污强度效应是驱动流域重金属水污染物排放脱钩的主导效应,工业化收入效应是抑制流域重金属水污染物排放脱钩的主导效应;区域及上游地区内的主导驱动效应的时空差异是流域时空差异的主要来源,排污强度效应和工业化收入效应虽然在向驱动脱钩的方向演进,但省区差异不均衡问题更加突出。据此,提出促进流域内各省区重金属水污染物排放脱钩的建议。

The Tapio and LMDI model were used to obtain the decoupling status and driving effect of the economic growth and heavy metal water pollutants discharge of the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2017,combined with the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation,the spatial and temporal difference characteristics,contribution rate and dynamic evolution laws of the key driving effects in regions and their sub-regions were revealed,and the decoupling mechanism of heavy metal water pollutants discharge in the Yellow River Basin was explained.The results showed that although there was a strong decoupling state at the basin level(except 2014—2015),the decoupling situation in the upstream region was still very unstable.The discharge intensity effect was the dominant effect driving the decoupling of heavy metal water pollutants discharge in the basin,and the income effect of industrialization was the domi⁃nant effect restraining the decoupling of heavy metal water pollutants discharge.The spatial and temporal differences of the dominant driving effects between regions and the upstream regions were the main sources of the spatial and temporal differences in the basin.Al⁃though the effects of pollutant discharge intensity and industrialization income were evolving towards the direction of driving decou⁃pling,the imbalance between provinces and regions was more prominent.Based on this,suggestions were put forward to promote the decoupling of heavy metal water pollutants discharge in the provinces and regions within the basin.