基于水足迹理论和多目标模糊规划的粮食作物种植结构优化和农业用水管理研究——以汉江流域为例

Research on Optimization of Crop Planting Structure and Agricultural Water Management Based on Water Footprint Theory and Multi-objective Fuzzy Programming--Taking Hanjiang River Basin as an Example

采用系统分析的方法,将水足迹理论、模糊机会约束规划(FCCP)和多目标规划模型(MOPM)整合到一个多目标模糊规划框架中,用于优化作物种植结构和农业用水管理,并分析其在不同可信度的有效性。该优化框架被应用于汉江流域,结果表明(在γ=0.55),在汉江流域内,中部和东南部地区宜种植更多水稻,大部分地区宜减少小麦和玉米的种植面积;汉江流域内作物种植的经济效益将增加39%。中部和南部地区的绿色和蓝色水足迹将增加,西北部地区的灰色水足迹将减少;汉江流域内水生产力将提高12%,灰水足迹将减少11%;在不同的可信度水平下,优化的作物种植结构都可以有效地实现经济、水生产力和污染控制目标,帮助汉江流域实现更好的农业水资源管理,促进农业生产的可持续发展。

Using a systematic analysis method,the water footprint theory,fuzzy chance-constrained programming(FCCP)and multi-objective programming model(MOPM)are integrated into a multi-objective fuzzy programming framework for optimizing crop planting structure and agricultural water management,and analyzing their effectiveness at different levels of confidence The optimization framework was applied to Hanjiang River Basin,and the results showed that(atγ=0.55),in the Hanjiang River Basin,more rice would need to be planted in the central and southeastern regions,and less wheat and maize would need to be planted in most regions.The economic benefits of crop cultivation in Hanjiang River Basin would increase by 39%.The green and blue water footprints would increase in the central and southern regions,and the gray water footprint would decrease in the northwestern region.Water productivity would increase by 12%and the grey water pollution would decrease by 11%.At different credibility levels,optimized crop planting structures were effective in achieving economic,water productivity and pollution control objectives,helping Hanjiang River Basin to achieve better agricultural water management and promote sustainable agricultural production.