旬邑县返贫风险影响因素分析与评价

Analysis and Evaluation of Influencing Factors of Poverty Return Risk in Xunyi County

为了研究脱贫人群是否存在返贫风险,以国家扶贫开发重点革命老区——旬邑县为调查对象,从劳动力、经济水平、家庭状况、政策扶持、地区的自然风险等不同方面构建综合评价指标体系,结合了层次分析法与模糊综合评价法两种方法对旬邑县的返贫风险的影响因素进行分析与评价。结果表明,该地区的扶贫政策对返贫风险影响最大,旬邑县具有返贫风险的家庭对政策满意度很高,村民的满意度与整体优劣势分析说明旬邑县的返贫风险较低。

In order to study whether there is a risk of returning to poverty among the people who have been lifted out of poverty,this paper takes Xunyi County,the key old revolutionary base area of national poverty alleviation and development,as the object of investigation,and constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system from different aspects such as labor force,economic level,family status,policy assistance and natural risk,and analyzes and evaluates the influencing factors of the risk of returning to poverty by using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the poverty alleviation policy in this area has the greatest impact on the risk of returning to poverty,the families with the risk of returning to poverty in Xunyi County are highly satisfied with the policy,and the analysis of villagers satisfaction and overall advantages and disadvantages shows that the risk of falling back to poverty in Xunyi County is low.