基于生态位模型的喜马拉雅红豆杉在云南省的分布预测与评价

Distribution Prediction and Evaluation of Taxus wallichiana in Yunnan Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

研究基于喜马拉雅红豆杉的分布信息和环境变量,采用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS对其在云南省的潜在分布区进行预测,利用ROC曲线验证模型预测精度,采用刀切法筛选重要环境变量及其适生阈值。结果表明,喜马拉雅红豆杉高适生区大部分主要分布于北纬25°以北的滇西北横断山脉区和哀牢山-无量山区域以及横断山脉南延的纵谷区,中适生区大部分沿高适生区周围分布,主要集中在滇中云岭山脉由西向东延伸的拱王山系余脉区;海拔、最暖月最高温、年均温变化范围、平均日较差及最冷月最低温是影响喜马拉雅红豆杉在云南省分布的主要环境变量。

Based on the ecological distribution and environmental variables of the Taxus wallichiana,the ecological niche modeling software MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential geographic distribution of Taxus wallichiana in Yunnan Province.ROC curve was used to verify model prediction accuracy,jackknife test was used to screen important environmental variables and their fitness thresholds.The results showed the most of highly suitable area for Taxus wallichiana was the Hengduan Mountains which was on the north of 25°N in northwest Yunnan,the Ailao Mountain-Wuliang Mountain area,and the longitudinal valley of Hengduan Mountains,and the most of moderately suitable area was distributed around the highly suitable area,mainly concentrated in the stretching branch of Gongwang Mountains of Yunling Mountains in central Yunnan extend from west to east area;the important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Taxus wallichiana were altitude,max temperature of warmest month,temperature annual range,mean diurnal range,min temperature of coldest month.