杠杆波动、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展

Leverage Fluctuation,Systemic Financial Risk and High-Quality Economic Development

本文动态识别杠杆波动、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展的时变关系,并选择中国三次“去杠杆化”的关键时期,详细刻画杠杆波动的传导效应。研究表明:一方面,杠杆波动在短期会显著累积系统性风险,该效应受经济形势与政策干预的影响存在异质性,长期则对风险无明显影响。在间接渠道下,杠杆波动短期对经济高质量发展产生“正负交替”效应,经济高质量发展则同步抑制系统性风险。另一方面,“扩内需”举措能稳健抑制风险,而“防风险”则有效推动经济高质量发展。

This paper dynamically identifies the time-varying relationship among leverage fluctuation,systemic financial risk and high-quality economic development,and selects the key period of China’s three“deleveraging”to describe the transmission effect of leverage fluctuation in detail.The research shows that,on the one hand,leverage fluctuation will significantly accumulate systemic risk in the short term,and this effect is heterogeneous under the influence of economic situation and policy intervention,but has no significant impact on risk in the long term.Through the indirect channel,leverage fluctuation has a“positive and negative alternating”effect on high-quality economic development in the short term,while high-quality economic development suppresses systemic risks simultaneously.On the other hand,“expanding domestic demand”policy can steadily curb risks,and“risk prevention”can effectively promote high-quality economic development.