经济政策、货币政策与宏观经济波动——基于分阶段和分区制的研究

Economic Policy, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuation——A Study Based on Phase and Regime

本文通过VAR拓展模型分析不同情形下不同货币政策的宏观经济效应。结果表明:(1)不同政策目标下,不同货币政策工具的调控效果存在差异,数量型工具的价格效应显著,价格型工具的增长效应突出。(2)经济政策不确定性由平稳期→下降期→上升期,量价工具的有效性逐步弱化,数量型工具弱化更为明显。(3)经济政策不确定性由低区制→高区制,量价工具的有效性有所下降,数量型工具下降更为明显。

This paper uses VAR expansion model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of different monetary policies in different circumstances. The results show that:(1) the regulation effects of different monetary policy instruments vary with policy objectives, that is, the price effect of quantitative instruments is significant, and the growth effect of price instruments is prominent;(2) the effectiveness of policy instruments, especially quantitative tools, weakens gradually as the economic policy uncertainty goes from stable period to declining period and then to rising period;(3) the effectiveness of policy instruments, especially quantitative tools, weakens as the economic policy uncertainty goes from low regime to high regime.