中美贸易增加值变动对创新的影响——基于制造业贸易调整成本与调节效应的实证分析

Impact of the Change of Sino-US Trade Value Added on Innovation——Research on the Trade Adjusted Cost and Regulatory Effect of Manufacturing Industry

在逆全球化、我国积极寻求经济转型的背景下,探究制造业贸易增加值对创新的影响,具有重要意义。利用OECD-WTO数据库计算得到贸易调整成本指数,并实证研究其对制造业创新的影响,结果发现:贸易调整成本指数会对制造业创新水平产生负面影响,负指数即出口收缩压力能够促进产业创新水平提升,而正指数则会抑制制造业创新发展;研发投入则具有反向调节效应,能够调节正指数的抑制作用以及负指数的促进作用;在不同的制造业细分行业中,贸易调整成本对创新影响程度不同。基于此,政府应当积极引导要素资源的流动,重视培育创新型人才,在不同的细分行业有针对性地采取不同措施,同时注意提升企业规模及其盈利能力。

Under the background of intensified global trade disputes,the innovation level has gradually become the decisive factor to improve the quality of economic development.Since the manufacturing is the pillar industry of economic development,it is of practical significance to explore the relationship between the changes of Sino US trade benefit and innovation in manufacturing industry.By calculating,the trade adjusted cost index adjusting by value added of nine categories in manufacturing industry,the paper tests its impact on industry innovation,and finds out that trade-adjusted cost will have a negative impact on the innovation level of manufacturing industry.Negative index,that is,export contraction pressure,can promote the innovation level of industry,while positive index will inhibit the innovation development of manufacturing industry.R&D investment can play a reverse adjustment role on this impact,which can regulate the inhibition of positive index and the promotion of negative index.In different manufacturing sectors,the impact of trade adjustment cost on innovation is different,and it has the greatest impact on the food,beverage and tobacco industries.Controlling variables,enterprise scale and profitability will promote the level of innovation.Based on the conclusion,the government should actively guide the flow of factor resources,pay attention to the cultivation of innovative talents,take different measures in different industries,and pay attention to improving the scale and profitability of enterprises.