碳中和下水泥行业低碳发展技术路径及预测研究

Research on Low-Carbon Development Technology Path and Forecast of Cement Industry under Carbon Neutral Situation

为探究水泥行业的碳中和实现路径,从我国的国情出发,结合水泥行业生产特点,对水泥行业未来低碳发展进行了预测.结果表明:①在碳中和背景下,水泥行业仍会存在约2×10^(8)~3×10^(8) t的CO_(2)排放,产能减量是主要的CO_(2)减排手段,结合现阶段我国较低的水泥集约化程度和较短的熟料生产线服役年限,产能减量政策的推荐和实施应在合理的规划和政策下推进,低碳技术的发展仍是实现碳中和的关键.②通过能效提升节能技术可实现CO_(2)减排约1.19×10^(8) t/a.③未来在替代原燃料来源、种类及替代率得到全面提升的情况下,原燃料替代技术可基本实现行业10%的CO_(2)减排量.④目前,低碳水泥每年产量不足水泥总产量的5%,未来仍需通过产品技术创新,提高其生产及使用占比.⑤CCUS(CO_(2)捕集、利用与封存)技术是水泥行业实现碳中和的必要路径,混凝土固碳、钙循环等在水泥行业具有典型行业优势的技术可与生产工艺紧密结合,成为未来水泥行业CCUS技术的重要发力点.研究显示:结合水泥行业CO_(2)减排预测及技术路径分析,短期内我国水泥行业降碳主要思路为控制源头排放,包括流程智能化、余热利用、原燃料替代和产业结构调整等路径,实现碳达峰及CO_(2)减排;中期随着生产线服役年限临近及低碳水泥制备技术的发展,支撑行业碳的大幅削减;后期通过CCUS、富氧燃烧、可再生能源利用等技术来实现水泥行业碳中和的目标.

In order to explore the path to achieve carbon neutrality in cement industry,the low-carbon development of cement industry in future is predicted based on China's conditions and the cement production characteristics.The results show that:(1)Under carbon neutral situation,the cement industry will still have about 200-300 million tons of CO_(2) emissions.Capacity reduction is the main carbon reduction path.Considering the relatively low degree of cement intensity and the short age of clinker production lines in China,the recommendation and implementation of capacity reduction policies should be promoted under reasonable plan and policies,and the development of low-carbon technologies is critical for cement carbon neutrality.(2)CO_(2) emissions can be reduced by approximately 119 million tons per year through energy efficiency improvement and energy-saving technologies.(3)Assuming that the sources,types,and substitution rates of alternative raw materials and fuels will be fully improved in the future,the raw-fuel substitution technology can basically achieve 10%of the CO_(2) emission reduction.(4)At present,the annual output of low-carbon cement is less than 5%of the total cement,and it is necessary to increase the proportion of its production through product innovation in the future.(5)CCUS(CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage)technologies are the necessary way to achieve carbon neutrality in the cement industry.Concrete carbon fixation,calcium looping and other technologies with typical industrial advantages can be tightly combined with the cement production process and become an important part of CCUS technologies in the cement industry.According to the forecast of CO_(2) emissions in the cement industry and the analysis of technology paths,the research shows that the main carbon reduction path for cement industry is to control CO_(2) source emissions in the short term,including intelligence processes,waste heat utilization,raw material and fuel substitution,and industrial structure adjustment.In the medium term,with the approaching service life of the production lines and the development of low-carbon cement preparation technologies,the significant carbon reduction can be achieved.As for the long term,CCUS,oxy-fuel combustion,renewable energy utilization and other technologies will be used to support the carbon neutrality goals of the cement industry.