关于结构性货币政策工具最优规模的实证分析--以山东省支小再贷款为例

An Empiical Analysis on the Optimal Scale of Structural Mometary Policy Tools——A Case Study of Support and Refinancing Loans for SMEs in Shandong Province

近年来,针对宏观经济运行中面临的结构性问题,中国人民银行不断创新丰富结构性货币政策工具,取得良好的政策效果。以结构性货币政策工具为研究对象,通过构建理论模型,探讨了结构性货币政策工具的最优区间,并基于山东省100家地方法人银行7个季度的数据,利用面板门槛模型,实证研究了支小再贷款与普惠小微贷款的关系,测算了支小再贷款的最优门槛值。研究结果发现,支小再贷款实现了预期的政策目标,促进了普惠小微贷款的增长,但支小再贷款的作用也有临界值,存在最优的结构性货币政策工具规模区间。基于此,建议根据普惠小微企业、“三农”等市场主体发展情况,提供相匹配的结构性货币政策工具支持,有效平衡好稳总量和调结构的功能,适时调整再贷款、再贴现等结构性货币政策工具的利率水平,进一步完善结构性货币政策工具的配套政策措施。

In recent years,in response to the structural problems faced in macroeconomic operation,PBOC has continuously innovated and enriched structural monetary policy tools,achieving good policy results.The optimal interval of structural monetary policy instruments is explored by constructing a theoretical model,using structural monetary policy instruments as the object of study.And based on the data of 100 local legal person banks in Shandong Province for 7 quarters,we empirically studied the relationship between the support small refinancing loans and the inclusive micro and small loans using the panel threshold model,and measured the optimal threshold value of support and refinancing loans for SMEs.The results of the study find that the micro-support refinancing has achieved the expected policy objectives and promoted the growth of inclusive micro and loans,but there is a critical value for the role of micro-support refinancing and there is an optimal size interval for structural monetary policy instruments.Based on this,it is recommended to provide matching structural monetary policy tools support according to the development of market players such as universal micro and small enterprises and agriculture,rural areas and farmers,effectively balance the functions of stabilizing the total amount and adjusting the structure,adjust the interest rate level of structural monetary policy tools such as refinancing and rediscounting in a timely manner,and further improve the supporting policy measures of structural monetary policy tools.