基本公共服务对农村人口流入影响以及传导机制——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

The Effect of Basic Public Services on Rural Population Inflows and Its Transmission Mechanism:An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model

随着乡村振兴战略的实施,中国农村人口流动出现了新的趋势,即在人口大量流出下,也出现了小规模的农民工返乡和外来人口流入的现象。基于天津186个村的实地调研数据,构建了空间计量模型进行实证分析,研究基本公共服务对于农村人口流入的影响及其传导机制,估计结果显示:村庄人口流入存在显著的空间溢出效应;村庄拥有完善的公共服务能够促进人口流入,相比于医疗服务,教育和交通的影响更为显著;交通具有空间溢出效应,不仅对本村庄的人口流入产生影响,而且还通过空间机制辐射到周边村庄;公共服务通过影响非农产业、村民收入有效吸引人口流入。

With the implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy,China′s rural population has flowed out in large numbers,but there have also been small-scale migrant worker returning to their hometowns and inflow of migrant population,which has been a new trend in China′s rural population flow.Based on the survey data of 186 villages in Tianjin,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of public services on rural population inflow and its transmission mechanism by using spatial model.The results show that:Firstly,there is a positive spatial spillover effect in rural population inflows.Secondly,a village with better infrastructure has a significant role in promoting population inflows;compared with medical services,the impact of education and transportation is more significant.Thirdly,transportation has a more significant spatial spillover effect,suggesting that a change not only exert influences on rural population inflows in the region,but also extend its radiation effects to the neighboring areas through spatial conduction mechanism.Fourthly,basic public services can effectively attract population inflow by influencing industrial development and residents′income.