政府收支对我国经济波动的平抑效果

Effect of Government Revenue and Spending on China's Economic Stability

采用构建的向量自回归模型(VAR模型)和向量误差修正模型(VEC模型),基于我国1985—2019年度经济发展相关数据的研究发现,政府支出冲击能在一定程度上提高实际产出和私人消费水平,对经济具有显著的促进作用;政府支出冲击会对私人投资造成短期挤出效应和长期挤入效应;从长期来看,政府收入冲击会导致实际产出水平的下降,政府收入冲击会造成私人消费和私人投资的剧烈波动。增强政策的正向效应,需要明确宏观调控中财政政策的目标,重视政府支出的度以及政府收入对私人消费和私人投资的影响,严格把控财政政策效应的滞后期。

A study is conducted by setting the VAR and VEC models and using the annual data from 1985 to 2019 of China’s economy.It has shown that government expenditure shocks can increase real output and private consumption levels to a certain extent and have a significant effect on the economy.Moreover,they have a short-term crowding-out effect and a long-term crowding-in effect on private investment.In the long run,government revenue shocks lead to a decline in real output levels and cause sharp fluctuations in private consumption and private investment.To enhance the positive effects of fiscal policies,government should therefore have clarified goals of macro-control fiscal policies,watch out for government spending levels and the impact of its revenue on private consumption and investment,and have strict control on the time lag of fiscal policy effects.