基于季节趋势模型法预测中国尿素产量

FORECAST OF UREA PRODUCTION IN CHINA BASED ON SEASONAL INDEX METHOD AND TIME SERIES SEASONAL METHOD

运用月平均季节指数趋势法和移动平均季节指数趋势法两种季节性分析方法对2017—2020年尿素月产量进行分析,建立趋势预测模型,用2021年尿素产量对趋势预测模型检验。两种方法均对尿素月产量的预测有实际意义,其中移动平均季节指数趋势法预测的精度更高一些,该预测模型可为尿素市场决策和政府化肥行业指导提供有效的建议。

In this paper,two seasonal methods,monthly average seasonal index trend method and moving average seasonal index trend method,are used to analyze the monthly urea output from 2017 to 2020,establish the trend prediction model,and test the trend prediction model with the urea output of 2021.The two methods are of practical significance for the prediction of monthly urea output,among which the prediction accuracy of moving average seasonal index trend method is higher.The prediction model provides effective suggestions for urea market decision-making and government guidance of chemical fertilizer industry.