我国奶业生产的时空演化及影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Dairy Production in China and Its Influencing Factors

目的和方法:基于我国2009—2018年相关奶业的省级面板数据,结合生产布局指数模型以及空间计量模型,分析我国奶业生产布局变化及影响因素。结果与结论:我国奶业生产共分为三个阶段:1999—2005年是快速增长阶段,2006—2014年为波动阶段,2016年后受环境规制和国际贸易的影响,奶牛存栏数出现持续下降趋势,但我国奶业生产仍具有很强的空间集聚性和正向空间相关性。农村教育、玉米产量、畜牧技术机构、农业用水、城镇化率、消费水平、奶牛优势区对奶业生产布局集聚有显著的正向促进作用,而环境规制对奶业生产布局集聚的影响呈现负向抑制作用。要加强省际间沟通交流,实施差异化环境规制,加大畜牧技术研发投入,培养技术型农村人才,推动农村城镇化建设健康发展,加快促进奶业高质量发展。

Objective and Method Based on the provincial panel data of China s dairy industry from 2009 to 2018,combined with the production layout index model and spatial econometric model,this paper analyzed the changes and influencing factors of China s dairy industry production layout.Result and Conclusion China s dairy production is divided into three stages,1999—2005 is a rapid growth stage,2006—2014 is a fluctuating stage,after 2016,affected by environmental regulations and international trade,the number of dairy cattle on hand continued to decline,but China s dairy production still has a strong spatial agglomeration and positive spatial correlation.Rural education,corn yield,animal husbandry technology institutions,agricultural water use,urbanization rate,consumption level,and dairy cow advantage area have significant positive effects on dairy production distribution agglomeration,while environmental regulation has a negative inhibitory effect on dairy production distribution agglomeration.It is necessary to strengthen inter provincial communication and exchange,implement differentiated environmental regulations,increase investment in animal husbandry technology research and development,cultivate technical rural talents,promote the healthy development of rural urbanization construction,and accelerate the high-quality development of dairy industry.