高等教育供需平衡的需求侧视角:回溯与前瞻

The Retrospective and Prospective Studies on Coordination of Supply and Demand of Higher Education from the Perspective of Demand-side

通过收集高等教育在校生规模、招生规模、招生计划完成情况、毛入学率、就业率等数据,对2006至2020年的高等教育发展情况进行了多角度及分区域分析;通过采集2020年不同学段学生规模数据,依照相关升学转换值,对2021至2035年未来15年高等教育规模进行了动态推算。研究表明,过去15年,我国高等教育已处于招生比较充分的相对高位阶段,但区域差异较大,各地区对高等教育需求不一;未来15年,我国普通高校本专科在校生规模总体还将继续扩大,但增幅将放缓,需警惕产生高等教育资源过剩的问题。为了把控高等教育规模发展,未来15年要强化供给与需求相对平衡的意识,与招生计划完成、就业状况统筹考虑,适当压缩普通民办高校与高职院校规模,高等教育投入要与高等教育规模相协调、与基础教育相衔接等。

This paper aims to make a region-based and multi-perspective analysis on the development of higher education between2006and2020by collecting data in terms of student scale,enrollment scale,completion of enrollment plan,gross enrollment rate and employment rate,etc.In accordance with relevant conversion value of higher education,dynamic measurements are made about the scale of China’s higher education in the coming15years between2021to2035.The research suggests that over the past15years,higher education in China displays a relatively sufficient and high-level enrollment with large regional disparity and unbalanced demand for higher education in various regions.Generally speaking,the scale of students receiving higher education in China will continue to expand in the next15years,though with slower pace,surplus of education resources could be a hidden trouble.To better control the higher education scale in the next15years,suggestions are proposed in the paper including raising awareness about supply-demand balancing,both the completion of enrollment plan and employment status should be taken into consideration,appropriately reducing the scale of ordinary private colleges and higher vocational colleges,the input on higher education should be coordinated with its scale,and strengthening ties with elementary education.