2022年中美宏观政策不同步的长期影响

The long-term impact of China-US macro policy desynchronize in 2022

当前,新冠肺炎疫情、供应链中断、大宗商品价格飙升、供求失衡等因素导致世界主要国家通胀率显著上升。在未来的一个发展阶段,我们将进入与通货膨胀长期结伴的新阶段。本文认为,2022年中国稳增长、美国反通胀的宏观经济政策不同步将产生长期影响,将出现中美宏观经济政策长期不同步、中美经济周期不同步、中美为世界提供公共产品和安全资产的作用不同步的新变化,将带来全球债务结构、国际货币体系、本国劳工市场的重大持续转变,从而引发国际格局和世界体系渐进的变局。无论世界如何风雨变幻,做好自己的事情始终是最重要的。我们需把握中华民族伟大复兴和建设人类命运共同体的机遇,开创新局面;把握中美经济不同步机遇为世界提供安全资产;把握中美科技不同步机遇促进全方位国际科技合作;把握金融发展不同步机遇,坚持金融为实体经济服务大方向;把握人口质量红利发展机遇化解老龄化挑战。

At present,factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic,supply chain disruptions,soaring commodity prices,and supply and demand imbalances have led to a significant rise in inflation rates in the world’s major countries.In a stage of development in the future,it will enter a new stage of long-term association with inflation.This article believes that in 2022,China’s stable growth and the US anti-inflation macroeconomic policies will have a long-term impact,and there will be new changes in which the macroeconomic policies of China and the United States are not synchronized for a long time,the economic cycles of China and the United States are not synchronized,and the roles of China and the United States in providing public goods and safe assets to the world are not synchronized,therefore,it will bring about major and continuous changes in the global debt structure,the international monetary system,and the domestic labor market,thereby triggering gradual changes in the international structure and the world system.No matter how the world changes,doing own thing is always the most important thing.It needs to grasp the opportunity of China’s rejuvenation and building a community of shared future for mankind,and create a new situation;grasp the opportunity of the asynchrony between the Chinese and American economies to provide safe assets to the world;grasp the opportunities of China and America technology asynchronous to promote all-round international scientific and technological cooperation;grasp the opportunities of asynchronous financial development,and adhere to the general direction of finance serving the substantial economy;grasp the development opportunity of population quality dividend to resolve the challenge of aging.