影响当前和今后一个时期全球格局演化的十大变量

Ten variables affecting the evolution of the global pattern at present and in the future

在当前国际形势风云变幻、世界不确定性显著增多的背景下,我们要从林林总总的表象中把握整体、全局和本质,发现那些影响世界格局演化的变量:俄乌战争是影响当前世界格局的重大变量;新冠肺炎疫情仍然肆虐影响世界经济复苏;世界经济复苏基础脆弱极可能再次陷入衰退;高通胀会持续推高一些国家生产生活成本;金融风险加剧有可能爆发全球性金融危机;全球性债务高企增加实施财政政策难度;全球供应链断链与供应链重构的风险巨大;全球灾害频发与生态环境恶化对人类生存造成重大挑战;政治动荡与地缘格局深刻调整及演化影响国际社会稳定;影响世界格局最大的变量仍是中美关系,两国合作将推动世界经济发展,两国对抗则会对世界经济产生巨大冲击。

In the context of the current changing international situation and the significant increase in the uncertainty of the world,it must grasp the whole,the overall situation and the essence from the various appearances and find those variables that affect the evolution of the world pattern:The Russian-Ukrainian war is a major variable affecting the current world pattern;the“sequela”of the COVID-19 continues to affect the recovery of the world economy;the weak foundation of the world economic recovery is very likely to fall into recession again;high inflation will continue to push up the cost of production and living in some countries;increased financial risks may lead to a global financial crisis;high global debt increases the difficulty of implementing fiscal policy;the risks of global supply chain disruption and supply chain reconstruction are huge;the frequent occurrence of global disasters and the deterioration of the ecological environment pose a major challenge to human survival;political turmoil and profound adjustment and evolution of the geopolitical pattern affect the stability of the international society;The biggest variable affecting the world pattern is still the relationship between China and the United States.The cooperation between the two countries will promote the development of the world economy,while the confrontation between the two countries will have a huge impact on the world economy.