粮食安全与农旅融合的互动关系--基于长江经济带粮食主产区的分析

Interactive Relationship Between Food Security and the Integration of Agriculture and Tourism--An analysis based on the main grain-producing areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

利用2005-2019年长江经济带粮食主产区面板数据,构建了面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),实证分析粮食安全与农旅融合之间的关系,结果表明:粮食安全与农旅融合之间存在相互影响的关系,二者互为Granger因果关系;方差分解可知,粮食安全对农旅融合变动的解释力较大,而农旅融合对粮食安全变动的解释力较小。因此,需要在确保粮食安全的前提下推进农旅深度融合,相关部门应继续改进农业与旅游业融合发展的政策制度和基础条件;农家乐、休闲农庄等农旅融合项目的开发,应避开保障粮食生产的基本农田等重点区域,避免危及粮食安全。

Based on the panel data of the main grain-producing area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2019,this paper constructs the PVAR model and empirically analyzes the relationship between food security and agriculture tourism integration.Results show that there is an interactive relationship between food security and the integration of agriculture and tourism,and they are mutually of Granger causality.The variance decomposition results show that food security has a greater explanatory power to the change of integration of agriculture and tourism,while the integration of agriculture and tourism has less explanatory power to the change of food security.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the deep integration of agriculture and tourism on the premise of ensuring food security,and the departments concerned should further improve the policy system and basic conditions for the integration and development of agriculture and tourism.And the development of farmhouse restaurants,farmsteads for leisure time recreation and other such projects should avoid the key areas known as the basic farmlands to ensure food production and avoid endangering food security.