最近一轮个税改革的消费升级效果

The Consumption Upgrading Effect of the Recent Round of Personal Income Tax Reform

2018年个税改革在提高免征额和完善税制结构之外,首次提出专项附加扣除规则,使得有负担家庭获得更多减税,居民的可支配收入增加,进而对居民的消费产生影响。借助中国个人所得税微观模拟模型估算了本次个税改革对家庭消费结构的影响。研究发现,本轮个税改革的减税总规模大约为7956亿元,使得2019年消费总额增加了3703亿元;不同类型居民消费的增加幅度和比例存在差异,个税改革具有推动消费升级的效果。专项附加扣除改革的消费升级效果更好,由于直接瞄准有支出负担的家庭,减负作用更为明显,尤其是在缓解医疗保健消费负担方面有更好效果。研究结论有助于从家庭减负角度为下一轮个税改革提供参考,同时有助于从政策层面为提升居民消费需求提供政策改革方向。

Aside from increasing exemptions and improving the tax structure,the personal income tax reform in 2018 introduced special additional deduction rules for the first time,so that families with expenditure burdens obtain more tax cuts and increased residents’disposable income,which will have an impact on residents’consumption.This paper uses China’s personal income tax micro-simulation model to estimate the impact of PIT reform on household consumption structure.The study finds that the total scale of tax cuts in this round of tax reform was about 795.6 billion yuan,which increased total consumption in 2019 by 370.3 billion yuan.There are differences in the increase range and proportion of different types of household consumption,and the reform has the effect of promoting consumption upgrading.The consumption upgrading effect of the special additional deduction reform is better.As it directly targets at families with expenditure burdens,the burden reduction effect is more obvious,especially in terms of alleviating the burden of medical care consumption.The results of this research paper help to provide a reference for the next round of tax reform from the perspective of household burden reduction,and help to provide policy reform direction for improving residents’consumption demand from the policy level.