基于实践的高速公路管养风险辨识、度量及管控探讨

Discussion on Risk Identification, Measurement and Control of Expressway Management and Maintenance Based on Practice

针对风险辨识、风险度量、事故预控等高速公路风险管理的难点进行了探索。其中:为便于风险辨识,将风险按专业分为交通运行、设施安全、养护作业3类;按存在状态分为持续性、伴生性、随机性、失养性4类,并指出隐患与风险的关系,提出了发现新风险的“假定要素或环节异常法”;在风险度量方面,建立了以模糊集隶属函数为理论依据,基于管理者实际感知的风险度量方法;在事故预控方面,为表达事故与条件密不可分的本质,通过条件概率将二者结合起来,列出了全概率、贝叶斯以及紧急情况的公式表述,得到了风险管控的总体方法。

The difficulties of expressway risk management including the risk identification,risk measurement and accident pre-control are explored,in which the risks are classified into three specialties of traffic operation,installation safety and maintenance work for the convenience of risk identification.The existential state is classified into four kinds of continuity,association,randomness and maintenance defect.And the relationship the hidden danger and risk is indicated.A"assume element or segment anomaly method"for finding out new risk is proposed.For the risk measurement,the fuzzy set membership function is taken as the theoretical basis to establish the risk measurement method based on the real perception of management members.For the pre-control of accidents,in order to express the inseparable nature of accidents and conditions,the both are combined through the conditional probability.The formula descriptions on total probability,Bayes formula and emergency are listed and the overall method of risk control is given.