中国水利现代化进程的再评价及其含义

Re-evaluation of the process of water conservancy modernization in china and its implications

依据《加快推进新时代水利现代化的指导意见》的总体思路,从水资源、水生态、水环境和水安全“四水共治”视角,对水利现代化实现过程进行再认识和评价。从资源需求保障、环境需求保障、生态需求保障、安全需求保障四个维度,构建水利现代化评价指标体系与测算方法,综合评价1980—2050年的中国水利现代化进程。从评价结果来看,中国水利现代化进程呈现S曲线变化,并且快于之前的预期。至2020年,水利现代化综合实现程度超过75%,其中资源需求保障度与安全需求保障度的实现程度超过90%,但环境需求保障度和生态需求保障度相对滞后,实现程度约为60%左右。展望2030年、2035年和2050年,水利现代化综合实现程度预计分别达到91.4%、97%、100%。测算结果表明,中国可望在2030—2035年之间基本实现水利现代化,并在2050年之前全面实现水利现代化,对社会主义现代化强国建设形成有力支撑。

According to the general idea of“Guiding opinions on speeding up water conservancy modernization in the new era”,the realization process of water conservancy modernization is deeply explored and re-evaluated,from the perspective of“Four-water integrated management”such as water resources,water ecology,water environment and water security.The evaluation index system and calculation method of water conservancy modernization are constructed,and the process of China’s water modernization in 1980—2050 is evaluated comprehensively,from four dimensions of resource demand guarantee,environmental demand guarantee,ecological demand guarantee and safety demand guarantee.From the evaluation results,the process of China’s water conservancy modernization presents S curve change,and faster than previous expectation.By 2020,the comprehensive realization degree of water conservancy modernization has exceeded 75%,and the realization degree of resource demand guarantee degree and safety demand guarantee degree has exceeded 90%,but the environment demand guarantee degree and ecological demand guarantee degree lag relatively,it′s only about 60%.Looking ahead to 2020—2050,China’s water conservancy development will turn to large-scale water ecological environment construction period,2030,2035 and 2050,the comprehensive degree of China’s water conservancy modernization is expected to achieve Separately 91.4%,97%,100%.Before 2050,China is on track to fully realize water conservancy modernization.It is expected that China will basically realize water conservancy modernization between 2030 and 2035,and fully realize water conservancy modernization before 2050,thereby providing strong supports for social-economic modernization.