双碳背景下基于AHP-CM的水电外送竞争力模型研究

AHP-CM-based study on hydropower outward-transmission competitiveness model under background of dual carbon targets

针对水电外送效益涉及利益主体多、“重受端轻送端”、“开火送水”、碳减排效益无法量化、难以对水电外送竞争力进行合理评估的问题,提出构建基于AHP-CM的水电外送竞争力评估模型。基于SWOT模型对水电外送优劣势进行了分析。针对水电外送总收益设计正向指标,针对碳减排效益问题设计新增火电成本和本地碳排放量的逆向指标,针对水电外送相关利益主体成本效益分摊问题设计效益均衡指标。以正向、逆向和均衡指标为基础,采用基于AHP改进的云模型对该指标体系进行研究,并选取四川、云南和贵州进行了算例分析。结果表明:四川和云南水电外送竞争力在2019年达到最优,评分结果均高于80,算例结果验证了AHP-CM水电竞争力评估模型具有一定的科学合理性;同时,敏感性分析结果表明,贵州水电外送竞争力相比其他两地来说,敏感度最小,影响率仅为3%(碳排放成本)和3.2%(效益HHI指数)。

Aiming at the problems involved with the benefits of hydropower outward-transmission,i.e.more stakeholders,‘attaching importance to receiving end and despising sending end’,‘outward-transmission of low price hydropower and inward-sale of high price thermal power’,‘unable to quantify the benefits of carbon emission reduction’and difficult to reasonably assess the competitiveness of hydropower outward-transmission,a AHP-CM-based model assessment model for competitiveness of hydropower outward-transmission is proposed and established.On the basis of SWOT model,the merits and defects of the hydropower outward-transmission are analyzed.And then,the positive indicator for the overall benefit of the hydropower outward-transmission is designed and the negative indicators of the newly added thermal power costs and local carbon emissions are designed for the carbon emission reduction benefits,while the benefit equilibrium indicator for the cost benefit sharing among the relevant stakeholders of hydropower transmission is designed as well.Based on the positive,negative and equilibrium indicators,the indicator system is studied with the improved AHP cloud model,and then the analysis by taking the provinces of Sichuan,Yunana and Guizhou as the calculation cases is carried out.The results show that the competitivenesses of hydropower outward-transmission in Sichuan and Yunnan reach the optimal levels in 2019 with both the scoring results higher than 80,thus the results of the calculation cases verify that the AHP-CM assessment model for the competitiveness of hydropower has a certain scientific reasonability.Meanwhile,the results of the sensitivity analysis show that the competitiveness of the sensitivity of the hydropower outward-transmission in Guizhou is the minimum with an influencing rate of only 3%(cost of carbon emission)and 3.2%(HHI index of benefit).