新时代中国人口结构的发展态势研究——基于对“第七次全国人口普查公报”的分析

A Study on the Development Trend of China's Population Structure in the New Era:Analysis Based on the Communique of the Seventh National Population Census

人口普查作为一项重要的国情调查,对国家管理和政策制定具有十分重要的意义。第七次全国人口普查更是新时代实现全面小康后全面开启建设社会主义现代化强国征程中具有重要意义的一次国情调查。基于对第七次全国人口普查公报的分析发现,我国人口规模面临负增长趋势、人口老龄化程度加剧造成的人口红利衰减、地域人口分布不均衡三大挑战,产生了显著的老龄社会问题、代际公平缺失和经济活力消弱等治理难题。应通过树立科学的人口观、完善相应社会保障体系、充分的政策保障激发生育行为、发展教育和科技提高人口质量、以经济均衡发展推动人口均衡分布多措并举来加以应对,不断完善我国人口政策体系,促进人口、经济、资源、社会、环境的协调发展。

As an important national survey, the population census is of great significance to national management and policy formulation. The seventh national population census is a significant survey of national conditions in the process of building a great modern socialist country after the achievement of a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the new era. Based on the text analysis of the Communique of the Seventh National Population Census, it is found that the population in our country is facing three major challenges: the negative population growth in the near future, the reducing population dividend brought about by the intensification of population aging and the imbalance of regional population distribution. Meanwhile, some governance problems emerged, such as the aging society, the lack of intergenerational equity and the weakening of economic vitality. It should be dealt with by establishing a scientific and modern view of population, improving the corresponding social security system, providing adequate policy guarantees to stimulate childbearing behavior, developing education and technology to improve population quality, and promoting balanced population distribution through balanced economic development. Moreover, we should constantly improve the population policy system, so as to promote the coordinated development of population, economy, resources, society and environment.