中国间接税的效率损失——基于中国生产网络结构一般均衡模型方法

Efficiency Loss of Indirect Tax in China: Based on the General Equilibrium Model of China’s Production Network Structure

本文构建了嵌入间接税的中国投入产出网络结构一般均衡模型,并创新性地提出间接税效率损失的事后测算方法。基于此,本文利用1992~2017年的中国投入产出表和税收等数据编制了与模型匹配的社会核算矩阵,并进一步进行了实证测算分析。研究表明:(1)总体上,考虑到生产网络结构、微观替代弹性系数和间接税处理方式的影响,中国间接税效率损失率约为0.5%~10%。(2)生产网络结构越复杂,微观替代弹性系数越大,间接税的效率损失率就越大。(3)生产网络二阶近似新方法测算的间接税效率损失率远大于经典哈伯格方法。(4)1992~2017年期间,中国间接税效率损失率呈阶段性特点。1992~2007年,伴随着分税制改革完成和加入WTO后深度融入全球价值链,中国间接税效率损失率总体上呈下降趋势。2007~2017年期间,中国间接税效率损失率受金融危机的影响先上升,后受减税降费等政策影响而保持平稳或略有下降。

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of China’s input-output network structure embedded with indirect tax, and innovatively puts forward the post calculation method of indirect tax efficiency loss. Based on this, this paper uses China’s input-output table and tax data from 1992 to 2017 to compile a social accounting matrix matching the model, and further empirically calculates and analyzes the efficiency loss and change of China’s indirect tax. The research shows that:(1) In general, considering production network structure, micro substitution elasticity coefficient and the model treatment of indirect tax, the efficiency loss rate of indirect tax in China is about 0.5%~10%.(2)The more complex the production network structure is, the greater the micro substitution elasticity coefficient is, and the greater the efficiency loss rate of indirect tax is.(3) The indirect tax efficiency loss rate calculated by the new second-order approximation method of production network is much greater than that of the classical harberger method.(4) From 1992 to 2017, China’s indirect tax efficiency loss rate showed phased characteristics. From 1992 to 2007, with the completion of tax sharing reform and deep integration into the global value chain after China’s entry into WTO, China’s indirect tax efficiency loss rate showed a downward trend on the whole. From 2007 to 2017, China’s indirect tax efficiency loss rate first increased under the influence of the financial crisis, and then remained stable or slightly decreased under the influence of policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction.