数字经济与实体经济的交互影响及空间溢出

The Interactive Influence and Spatial Spillover between Digital Economy and Real Economy

推进数字经济与实体经济深度融合、协同发展是建设数字中国、实现数字强国的重要着力点。既往研究囿于模型构建的局限,忽略数字经济与实体经济的空间交互关系以及潜在的内生性问题,这可能会使参数估计结果出现严重偏误。文章基于中国100个大中城市的面板数据,构建了空间联立方程模型,考察了数字经济与实体经济的内生交互影响以及空间溢出效应。研究发现:区域内数字经济与实体经济间存在显著的正面交互作用,即数字经济与实体经济可双向促进;而在区域间数字经济与实体经济均存在显著的负面空间溢出效应,即本地数字经济抑制了邻近地区的实体经济增长,并且邻近地区实体经济规模的扩大也会给本地数字经济发展造成不利影响。面板分位数和面板门槛模型分别识别了数字经济影响实体经济的条件性特征与阶段性特征。最后,基于实证结论给出了相应政策建议。

Promoting the deep integration and coordinated development of the digital economy and the real economy is an important focus of building digital China and realizing a digital power. However, due to the limitation of model construction, previous studies ignored the spatial interaction between digital economy and real economy, and the potential endogeneity problem, which may lead to serious errors in parameter estimation results. Based on the panel data of 100 large and medium-sized cities in China, this paper constructs a spatial simultaneous equation model to investigate the endogenous interaction and spatial spillover effects between the digital economy and the real economy. It is found that there is a significant positive interaction between the digital economy and the real economy in the same region, that is, the digital economy and the real economy promote each other. But there is a significant negative spatial spillover effect between the digital economy and the real economy in different regions. In other words, the local digital economy restrains the growth of the real economy in neighboring regions, and the expansion of the real economy in neighboring regions also brings adverse impact on the development of the local digital economy. The panel quantile model and the panel threshold model identify the conditional and stage characteristics of the digital economy’s impact on the real economy respectively. Finally, based on the empirical conclusions, the corresponding policy suggestions are given.