国家自主创新示范区建设的经济增长效应估计——以合芜蚌自创区为例

Economic Growth Effect Estimation of Construction of National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone:Taking Hefei-Wuhu-Bengbu Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone

以合芜蚌三市2008—2016年、2016—2018年两阶段实施自创区政策为观测,构建准自然实验,分阶段利用合成控制法与76个对照组城市数据检验合芜蚌自创区政策对区域经济增长的促进效应。结果表明:合肥市和芜湖市实施两阶段自主创新政策均能对区域经济增长产生明显的正向处理效应,蚌埠市的政策效应具有明显的滞后性,且其政策效果不如合肥与芜湖两市;进一步,通过安慰剂检验等多种稳健性测试,证实合成控制法实验结论的可靠性;对自创区政策的区域创新水平促进效应进行检验,发现合芜蚌三市自创区政策的区域创新水平提升效应与区域经济增长效应表现出一致性,且合芜蚌自创区建设面临着区域创新发展不协调的问题。

Taking the Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone of Hefei,Wuhu,and Bengbu in 2008-2016 and in 2016-2018,a quasi-natural experiment is constructed to test the promotion effect of the self-created zone policy on regional economic growth by using the synthetic control method and the data of 76 control cities in different stages.The results show that the implementation of the two-stage independent innovation policy in Hefei and Wuhu has a significant positive processing effect on regional economic growth.The policy effect of Bengbu city is obviously lagging behind,and its policy effect is not as good as Hefei and Wuhu.Furthermore,the reliability of experimental results of the synthetic control method is verified by a variety of robustness test methods such as placebo test.The test of the promotion effect of the policy on the level of regional innovation show that the promotion effect of the policy on the level of innovation in the three cities is consistent with the economic growth effect of the policy,and the construction of the self-created zone is facing the problem of uncoordinated regional innovation development.