可再生能源电力配额指标动态分配机制研究

Research on dynamic allocation mechanism of renewables quota in renewable portfolio standard

能源是经济社会赖以发展的基础,我国在经济发展的过程中不可避免地会遇到能源短缺与环境污染等问题.大力发展可再生、清洁能源已成为大势所趋,为此我国设立了专门的中长期能源与环境目标.可再生能源电力配额制是实现此类目标的有效途径与重要手段.该制度通过规定各个省份消费量中可再生能源发电量占电力总量的比重渐进式地对我国能源结构进行结构化调整,其中配额指标的制定与分配环节尤为重要,然而鲜有文献对此展开研究.据此,本文基于经济发展的效率与公平原则,建立了可再生能源电力配额指标的动态分配机制.效率视角下,本文利用DEAMalmquist指数对各省份能源利用效率进行测算,用全要素生产率衡量各省能源利用效率的变化情况并作为配额参数.公平视角下,本文充分考虑了历史可再生能源电力配额对新增配额的影响,并通过引入惩罚系数激励所有省份实现配额目标及提高能源利用效率.以我国2017-2018年数据进行了实证分析,结果显示:该机制能够合理地对因全国配额总目标提升产生的新增待分配消费量进行分配,历史配额量、能源利用效率的综合考虑使得所有省份新配额量增量均为正,但部分省份配额比例可能下降,这体现了配额制中的惩罚-激励原则.此外,基于实证结果本文进一步为可再生能源的发展提出了相应的政策建议.

Energy is the basis of economic and social development.China inevitably encounters problems such as energy shortage and environmental pollution in the process of economic development.Vigorous development of renewable and clean energy has become a general trend,and for this reason,China has set up special mid-and long-term energy and environmental goals.Renewable portfolio standard is an effective way and an important means to achieve such goals.The system progressively and structurally adjusts China’s energy structure by stipulating the proportion of renewable energy power generation in the total consumption of various provinces.The establishment and allocation of quota indicators is particularly important,but there is now little literature on this topic.Accordingly,based on the principles of fairness and efficiency in economic development,this paper establishes a dynamic allocation mechanism for renewable energy quota.From the perspective of efficiency,this paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index to measure the energy use efficiency of each province,and uses the total factor productivity to measure the change of energy use efficiency of each province and uses it as a quota parameter.From a fair perspective,this paper fully considers the impact of historical renewable energy power quotas on new quotas;and introduces a penalty factor to encourage all provinces to achieve quota targets and improve energy efficiency.Empirical analysis based on China’s 2017 and 2018 data shows that the mechanism can reasonably allocate the new consumption to be generated due to the increase of the national quota target.The comprehensive consideration of historical quotas and energy utilization efficiency makes that all the increments of the new provincial quotas are all positive,but the proportion of quotas in some provinces may decline,which reflects the penalty-incentive principle in the quota system.Further,based on the empirical results,this paper provides some management suggestions on the development of renewable energy.