基于多状态树的电力通信网运行风险概率评估算法

Probabilistic Evaluation Algorithm of Power Communication Network Operation Risk Based on Multi State Tree

电力通信网运行存在一定的风险,为了提高风险评估准确率,提升风险评估效果,研究基于多状态树的电力通信网运行风险概率评估算法。考虑各种不确定性因素对电力通信网安全运行的影响,选取运行风险概率评估指标,包括网络业务层、网络拓扑层、网络路由层、网络设备层以及网络运行层。利用子节点生成算法获取可靠性指标状态向量的全部子节点,生成多状态树,通过多状态树评估算法实现网络运行风险概率评估。实验结果表明,该算法可有效评估电力通信网络短期、中期、长期运行过程中的风险概率,评估准确率较高。

There are certain risks in the operation of power communication network.In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment and improve the effect of risk assessment,a probability assessment algorithm of power communication network operation risk based on multi state tree is studied.Considering the influence of various uncertain factors on the safe operation of power communication network,the operational risk probability evaluation index is selected,including network service layer,network topology layer,network routing layer,network equipment layer and network operation layer.The sub-node generation algorithm is used to obtain all the sub-nodes of the reliability index state vector to generate a multi-state tree,and the multi-state tree evaluation algorithm is used to realize the network operation risk probability assessment.Experimental results show that the algorithm can effectively evaluate the risk probability in the short-term,medium-term and long-term operation of the power communication network,and the assessment accuracy is high.