基于引力模型的大气污染对成都入境旅游的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Air Pollution on Inbound Tourism in Chengdu Based on Gravity Model

基于引力模型对成都大气污染与入境旅游相关数据进行建模,采用18个旅游客源地入境成都的旅游数据进行稳健性检验和异质性分析。结果表明:使用固定效应模型并采用广义最小二乘法进行估算,空气污染对成都入境旅游人数产生显著消极效应,SO_(2)、NO_(2)和PM_(10)对成都入境旅游人数的负向影响存在差异,其中PM_(10)影响最大,NO_(2)次之,SO_(2)最小;9个变量中除旅游接待能力中的住宿接待能力、经济距离对成都入境旅游业产生显著的负向效应外,其余均为正向效应。

This paper models the data related to air pollution and inbound tourism in Chengdu based on the gravity model,and uses tourism data from 18 tourist source countries or regions entering Chengdu for robustness testing and heterogeneity analysis.The results show that:using a fixed-effects model and estimated by generalized least squares(GLS),air pollution has a significant negative effect on the number of inbound tourism in Chengdu,and there are differences in the negative effects of SO_(2),NO_(2) and PM_(10) on the number of inbound tourism in Chengdu,with PM_(10) having the largest effect,NO_(2) the second and SO_(2) the smallest;among the nine variables,except for accommodation reception capacity in tourism reception capacity,all the nine variables have significant positive effects on inbound tourism in Chengdu except for accommodation capacity and economic distance.