老年人失能风险预测评估指标体系的构建

Construction of risk prediction and assessment index system for disability in the elderly

目的:构建以健康社会决定因素理论为框架的老年人失能风险预测评估指标体系,为有效评估老年人的失能风险提供依据。方法:通过查阅相关文献,分析老年人失能风险因素,以健康社会决定因素理论为框架,形成指标条目池,运用德尔菲法形成老年人失能风险预测评估指标体系。结果:共进行了2轮专家咨询,问卷的有效回收率均为100%,专家权威系数分别为0.90和0.92,肯德尔协调系数分别为0.189和0.237(均P<0.05)。最终形成了包含3项一级指标、9项二级指标、40项三级指标的老年人失能风险预测评估指标体系。结论:构建的老年人失能风险预测评估指标体系可靠、科学,可为社区医疗机构评估老年人的失能风险提供参考依据。

Objective:To construct risk prediction and assessment index system for disability in the elderly based on the theory of social determinants of health,and to provide basis for effectively evaluating the risk of disability in the elderly. Methods:The risk factors of disability in the elderly were analyzed by referring to relevant literature,and the index item pool was formed under the framework of the theory of social determinants of health. The index system of risk prediction and evaluation of disability in the elderly was formed by Delphi method. Results:There were two rounds of expert consultation. The effective recovery rates of of 2 rounds of expert letter questionnaires were 100%. The expert authority coefficients were 0. 90 and 0. 92,respectively. And Kendall coordination coefficients were 0. 189 and 0. 237,respectively(P<0. 05). Finally,the formed risk prediction and assessment index system for disability in the elderly included 3 first-level indexes,9 second-level indexes and 40 third-level indexes. Conclusions:The established risk prediction and assessment index system for disability in the elderly was reliable and scientific,which can provide reference for community medical institutions in evaluating the risk of disability in the elderly.