RCEP、全球价值链与异质性消费者贸易利益

RCEP,Global Value Chain and the Gains from Trade of Heterogeneous Consumers

在各国相互依赖的全球价值链时代,区域贸易协定的签署定会波及不同国家的异质性消费者,引致不同群体所获开放成果存在差异。本文选取《区域全面伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)这一特定区域贸易协定,构建一般均衡模型,量化评估该协定对个体贸易利益的影响。研究发现,首先,RCEP关税削减提高了所有成员国及部分非成员国消费者贸易利益;其次,在全球价值链框架下,区域贸易协定会对各国异质性消费者产生差异化影响,引致开放成果分配不均,RCEP关税削减对除印度和韩国之外的国家高收入消费者更有利;最后,反事实分析表明,若中国不加入RCEP,不仅自身福利受损,也会对大部分国家产生负面影响,若印度加入RCEP,将在提高本国消费者福利的同时,进一步增加所有国家整体福利。综上所述,RCEP是把“双刃剑”,在提升整体消费者贸易利益的同时,也会拉大不同收入消费者福利差距。这提醒我们,在全球价值链时代,享受区域贸易协定带来的积极经济效应的同时,也应选择合理的国内配套政策,防范其带来的负面影响,以获取更大的开放成果。

Since the 1990s,the pattern of international division of labor has undergone major changes,forming a new international division of labor system in which different countries specialize in different processes and tasks.Globalization has entered the era of global value chain.An important feature of this new globalization is that it can have a more individualized impact,also known as kaleidoscope globalization.The Outline of the 14 th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to“implement the strategy of upgrading free trade zones and build a global network of high-standard free trade zones”.In the era of global value chain,it is of great significance to accurately and quantitatively evaluate the impact of the signing of regional trade agreements on the gains from trade of heterogeneous consumers at different income levels in different countries.Firstly,this paper constructs a general equilibrium model,assuming that there are differences in the income level and demand structure of consumers in different countries,and considers the input-output linkage between countries and sectors.Secondly,this paper selects Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)as a specific regional trade agreement,uses the World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS)database to obtain the benchmark tariff rate,calculate the input-output parameters through the OECD Inter-country Input-output Tables,and uses the simulated method of moments(SMM)to estimate the marginal propensity to consume and correlation coefficient based on the world income inequality database.Finally,the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on the gains from trade of heterogeneous consumers in different countries is solved iteratively.This paper finds that firstly,RCEP tariff reduction improved the gains from trade of heterogeneous consumers in most countries.Among the selected countries,only France,Germany,Italy and India suffered from consumer welfare loss.Secondly,there are significant differences in the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on the gains from trade of different member countries.Cambodia has the largest gains,followed by Malaysia and Thailand.Moreover,for other countries except South Korea and India,RCEP tariff reduction will either benefit high-income consumers more or make them suffer less.Finally,the counterfactual analysis shows that if China does not join the RCEP,it will not only reduce the gains from trade of Chinese consumers,but also have a negative welfare impact on the heterogeneous consumers of the selected countries.In addition,if India joins the RCEP,it will not only improve the welfare gains of Indian consumers,but also increase the overall weighted average welfare gains of RCEP member countries and selected countries.The conclusions above show that the RCEP is a double-edged sword,which will not only improve the overall gains from trade of consumers,but also widen the welfare gap of consumers with different income levels.At the same time,it warns us that in the era of global value chain,while enjoying the positive welfare effects brought by regional trade agreements,we should also adopt reasonable domestic supporting policies to prevent their negative effects.Compared with existing studies,the marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,in terms of research content,the existing literature only explores the impact of regional trade agreements on representative consumers in various countries through Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model,and there is no literature quantitatively analyzing the impact of regional trade agreements on the gains from trade of consumers with heterogeneous income levels in various countries.Secondly,in terms of research methods,this paper breaks through the reduced form estimation method,and constructs a structural model to evaluate the welfare effect of the RCEP.Finally,in terms of policy implications,clarifying the distribution mechanism and effect of regional economic integration at the individual level and deeply understanding the microeconomic source of trade liberalization will help China design more equitable redistribution policies,promote social equitable development and improve the overall economic efficiency.