中国对外直接投资提高“一带一路”沿线国家的GVC分工水平了吗——沿线44个国家的动态面板实证检验

Does China’s OFDI Improve the GVC Division Level in Countries along the Belt and Road?——A Dynamic Panel Empirical Test Based on 44 Countries

在世界经济的新格局下,全球价值链(Global Value Chain,GVC)分工水平在各方力量的影响下不断重塑,中国作为“一带一路”对外直接投资的重要参与国,具有追求经济收益和经济增长迫切需求,而对外直接投资是GVC分工水平的重要影响因素之一。探讨中国对外直接投资(Outward Foreign Direct Investment,OFDI)对沿线经济体产业分工的影响效应,对检验“一带一路”倡议是否践行其合作共赢、共同发展的初衷具有重要意义。以“一带一路”沿线44个经济体为研究样本,利用两步SYS-GMM模型探析中国OFDI对“一带一路”沿线国家GVC分工水平的影响。结果表明,中国OFDI可以从增加资本存量、提高劳动生产率、优化产业结构和提升基础设施水平四个渠道提升“一带一路”沿线国家的GVC分工水平,但是受中国和沿线国家产业发展水平、投资类型以及“倡议”推行时间所限,提升技术水平尚未成为其机制之一。因此,在与沿线国家产业协作中,要因地制宜,相机抉择地调整投资对象与内容,积极引导GVC分工的互补合作,保持长效投资与长期合作。

Under the new pattern of the world economy,the division of labor in the global value chain(GVC)is constantly reshaped under the influence of various forces,and China’s OFDI(Outward Foreign Direct Investment)is one of the important factors affecting the division of labor in GVC.It is of great significance to explore the impact of China’s OFDI on the industrial division of labor in countries along the Belt and Road,and to test whether the Belt and Road initiative has fulfilled its original intention of win-win cooperation and common development.Taking 44 countries along the Belt and Road as research samples,this paper analyzes the impact of China’s OFDI on the level of GVC division of labor in countries along the Belt and Road by using the two-step SYS-GMM model.The results show that China’s OFDI can improve the level of GVC division of labor in countries along the Belt and Road from four channels:increasing capital stock,improving labor productivity,optimizing industrial structure and upgrading infrastructure.But upgrading technological level has not yet matured due to limitation of industrial development level,investment type and implementation time of the“initiative”in China and countries along the Belt and Road.Therefore,in the process of industrial cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road,we should adjust investment objects and contents according to local conditions,actively guide the complementary cooperation of GVC division of labor,and maintain long-term investment and cooperation.